Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 808 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2015 Valid 00Z Fri Jun 26 2015 - 00Z Fri Jul 03 2015 Over the coming days expect a succession of features associated with an evolving central Pacific trough aloft to weaken trades over the islands. This evolution should encourage somewhat more land and sea breeze focus for shower activity than what should exist at the start of the period. Latest guidance keeps rainfall on the light side through the period, though it might be possible to see modest enhancement with the combined influence of lower heights aloft after Sun and passage of one or more tropical waves. As for forecast specifics, the 06z GFS has adjusted southward to the 00z ECMWF for the first wave well north of the islands as of Mon. Ensembles do not seem to add much further insight with the ECMWF mean similar to the 06z GFS/00z ECMWF and 00z GEFS mean farther northward. Aside from the 00z ECMWF closing off an upper low, shape of dynamics aloft may not fully support the southern side of the envelope for the surface low. Then the 06z GFS and 00z GEFS mean are both northward of the 00z GFS for the stronger central Pacific system next Tue-Wed, with the 00z ECMWF/ECMWF mean even farther northward. Current consensus recommends keeping the core of upper level energy somewhat northward of the 00z/06z GFS runs. Toward the end of next week more typical trades may resume as the overall central-eastern Pacific pattern retrogrades a little. Currently this idea is reflected a little more enthusiastically in the ensemble means. Rausch