Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 14 2015 - 00Z Tue Jul 21 2015

Trades have resumed as the remnant of Ela continues westward away
from the islands.  Expect winds to be in the moderate to brisk
range early in the week but gradually weakening somewhat as high
pressure to the north of the islands moves to the northeast.  This
high should then retrograde Fri onward but remain north of 40N so
trades should remain fairly stable in this time frame. 
Precipitable water values will likely decrease to near or slightly
below 1.50 inches at times through midweek.  Then aside from minor
timing differences there is reasonable agreement that a band of
enhanced moisture should reach the state late in the week.  Models
depict this band as breaking off from T.S. Enrique earlier in the
period, while Enrique itself should remain well to the east of the
area through the period.  The moisture should provide some
enhancement of terrain focused rainfall for a portion of the
Thu-Sat period before trending lighter into early next week.  From
late Sat into Mon there are some model differences with how much
drying occurs with the 00z ECMWF run showing lower PWATs than
00z/06z GFS runs while a number of model runs indicate a broad mid
level weakness moving into the area from the east, so there is a
fair degree of uncertainty over what the extent of the drying
trend will be.

Rausch