Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 27 2015 - 00Z Mon Aug 03 2015

Short-term forecasts looked solid across the region heading into
day 5---with the GEFS/GFS solution displaying less interaction
between the mid-latitude flow and Subtropics than the ECENS/ECMWF
after day 5 ---along 150W. For now---a blend of the 26/00Z these
means would work for days 5-7.  

Extended forecast in the Tropics---
Through day 5---the 26/00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF both continue
to indicate an organized tropical development from a broad region
of cloudiness currently near 15N and southwest of Hawai'i. Some of
the outflow from this region of disturbed weather is streaming
eastward to 20N and providing a westerly flow aloft and pronounced
shear across the western half of the state. As was the case
yesterday--- the deterministic ECMWF becomes the a slightly faster
solution between 31/00Z and 2/12Z---and a continues to be a deeper
one versus the GFS---as the system intensifies and migrates toward
the Marianas around 2/00Z-2/12Z time frame. 

A second broad region of disturbed weather---currently near 15N
120W --- remains as an organized tropical wave---by the ECMWF
through day 7. And like yesterday---The 26/00Z ECMWF keeps its
track along 15N and makes a pass south of Hawai'i. The GFS no
longer carries this feature beyond 145W after 1/00Z (day 5-6 time
frame).

Vojtesak