Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 828 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2015 Valid 00Z Tue Jul 28 2015 - 00Z Tue Aug 04 2015 Short-term model forecasts looked solid across Pacific through day 3. The 27/00Z cycle still has some unresolved details concerning the exchange of moisture and energy between the mid-latitude flow and Subtropics---but for the most part these differences are anchored along 140W and 170E---bookending the Islands and allowing a 'fairly persistence-based' forecast through day 6. Extended forecast in the Tropics--- Through day 5---the 27/00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and ECENS/GEFS support a solid consensus for the organizing tropical disturbance ---currently invof 15N 175E--- to make a pass across the Marianas around the 2/12Z time frame. The Canadian is on the fast side of the ensemble envelope, the GFS on the slower side, and the ECMWF in the middle---but a slightly faster solution versus its 27/00Z ECENS mean. A very broad region of disturbed weather embedded within an unusually active far southeastern Pacific Monsoon Trough/ITCZ---currently migrating a series of tropical impulses westward along 10N from the coast of Colombia (80W longitude) to Hawai'i (160W longitude). From this tropical region, the deterministic and ensemble guidance projects some unsettled weather to periodically move closer to the Big Island. For a third set of 00Z forecast cycles---the ECMWF has maintained the best continuity with the migration of a disturbance west of 145W along 15N. The 27/00Z GFS has 'identified it' near 14N 151W at 3/12Z and the ECMWF carries this disturbance near 14.5N 144W valid at 3/12Z. The Canadian seems to be an outlier solution here. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for additional details regarding this broad area of disturbed weather. Vojtesak