Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 21 2015 - 00Z Fri Aug 28 2015


...The Tropics Threaten Once Again...

The models indicate that Hawai'i will continue to remain
vulnerable to disturbances in the trades for the foreseeable
future. A couple of these disturbances--the one about 1,000 miles
south-southeast of the state and another that the 00Z/20 ECMWF
seems to like a week from now--have the potential to develop into
tropical cyclones. Many of the GFS solutions of late, including
the 06Z/20 run, recurve the first low into Hawai'i with a rather
menacing intensification Monday and Tuesday. Even without any
"formal" tropical cyclone, the pattern looks as unsettled and
unpredictable as it has been most of the past month or more.
Five-day QPF through 00Z/26 Wednesday is in excess of
three-quarters of an inch everywhere, with much higher amounts in
the terrain. Any near- or direct-hit from a tropical cyclone could
produce totals in the feet.


Cisco