Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2015

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 23 2015 - 00Z Sun Aug 30 2015


...Kilo Is the Word...

Much and more continues to ride upon the track of Kilo once it
passes west of the heart of the Hawai'an islands' longitude
tonight. The models continue to indicate that Hawai'i will remain
near the boundary between the westerlies and the trades for the
foreseeable future. The regime is an unsettled and wet one, with
or without hurricanes, so rainfall will likely continue above
normal, with low predictability of wiggles in both streams.
Tropical Depression Kilo appears most threatening to the state if
and when it may recurve. For now, the GFS has backed off on its
sharp right turn toward Kaua'i. The ECMWF has, more or less,
remained steadfast in its forecast of keeping the cyclone away.
Five-day QPF through 00Z/28 Friday is one to five inches
statewide, with a focus over the terrain. Mauna Loa appears
particularly vulnerable, with the GFS still pegging the peak with
over a foot of rain.


Cisco