Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 804 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2015 Valid 00Z Sun Aug 30 2015 - 00Z Sun Sep 06 2015 The 29/00Z GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles are in good alignment with the synoptic-scale pattern---primary sensible weather features through 132 hours (3/12Z)---and the current Hawai'i forecasts. Mid-latitude Pacific has become highly-amplified along 130W and the Dateline with a sprawling deep-layered ridge centered invof 40N 160W. The one region of the Pacific---in the current pattern--- that warrants some mention is invof 30N 170W. This region of the Pacific is a short-term 'spawning ground' for shallow cutoff lows. The negative-tilt trough and blocky upstream pattern is associated with the remnant circulation formerly known as 'Atsani'. This circulation whisked 'Loke' downstream a couple of days ago...and has generated a cutoff low near 26N 165W (on current satellite). It's an unusual pattern to say the least---and the cutoff provides additional concern from a dynamical shear perspective. This 29/00Z deterministic run, the GFS/ECMWF have the cutoff on an intriguing 'path' that fills the region currently serving as the 'col' providing separation between 'Kilo' and 'Ignacio'. The means do not necessarily account for the well-constructed feature in the 'big-picture' longer-range solution --- given the presence of the deep-layered ridge. And, with the global guidance maintaining the deep-layered ridge configuration, its gradual shift ---slightly south of due east---through the end of this forecast period (closer to a lat/long position near 150W)---the interaction between the cutoff, 'Kilo' and 'Ignacio' do not seem to alter the overall---synoptic-scale progression of this particular trio of tropicals for the day 4-7 period. Vojtesak