Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 19 2015 - 00Z Sat Sep 26 2015

Models and ensembles still reasonably agree that high pressure
bridging/reinforcing north and northeast of the state should
continue to support moderate to locally brisk mean trades over the
next week. This would prolong a limited pattern of windward
terrain based rainfall for much of the state into next week, but
with best moisture over the Big Island. Water vapor loops show a
closed low spinning to the northeast of the state, now near 23N
149W. A favored composite of models and ensembles suggests this
feature will slowly work closer to the islands this weekend into
next week. This would act to gradually destabilize a
moistening/higher precipitable water airmass and further enhance
heavier downpour potential nearby, especially for the eastern
islands.

Schichtel