Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 25 2015 - 00Z Fri Oct 02 2015


The 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF track the area of thunderstorms well
southeast of Hilo into or just east of the Big Island by Sunday.
The models indicate some development of the disturbance before
then, though significant shear across the Hawai'ian islands is
likely to buffer the state from an organized cyclone. In general,
Hawai'i is progged to remain near the interface between the trades
and polar westerlies, with deep-layer tropical moisture contained
to the south of this boundary. Five-day QPF through 00Z/30
Wednesday is at least a quarter- to half-inch statewide, with
several inches depicted for Mauna Loa.


Cisco