Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2015

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 27 2015 - 00Z Sun Oct 04 2015


...Niala Threatens the Big Island with Torrential Rains ...

As Tropical Storm Niala tracks along a counterclockwise arc to the
south of the state in the coming days, it will unleash a plume of
deep-layer moisture from the intertropical convergence zone across
the Big Island and, to a lesser extent, Maui. Five-day QPF totals
through 00Z October 2 are 12-16" across portions of the Big
Island, with upwards of 3" for favored areas of Maui. What happens
later next week after Niala passes to the southwest of Hawai'i is
quite unclear. It appears an upper low may close off in the
westerlies north of the state. If that eddy forms, its location
would be critical to the prognosis of late-period rainfall over
all the main Hawai'ian islands.


Cisco