Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 804 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2015 Valid 00Z Wed Oct 21 2015 - 00Z Wed Oct 28 2015 The 20/00Z forecast cycle and ECMWF/GFS deterministic solutions were in general agreement through day 4 (Saturday_25/00Z) with the main synoptic-scale features in the Pacific basin. And at first glance---the solutions mesh well with current local Hawai'i forecasts. Both solutions recurve 'Olaf' northeastward as the tropical system migrates north of 20N latitude and fall within the tropical ensemble forecast track guidance spread. Around the 25/12Z time frame (Sunday)---there are significant differences between these two deterministic model solutions. Not sure either solution is of much help today---with the ejection of tropical energy and moisture into the mid-latitude flow. Given the downstream solutions become equally troublesome along the southwest Canadian coast and Mainland early next week---thoughts are to defer today to a blend of the 3 primary ensemble forecast means---the 20/00Z ECENS/GEFS and NAEFS beyond the 25/00Z time frame. For the latest information concerning Hurricane 'Olaf'---please refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). Vojtesak