Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 23 2015 - 00Z Fri Oct 30 2015

The 22/00z guidance cycle did not disappoint through day 3
(Sunday) and continues to trend towards fair weather and a return
to high pressure 'control' of the low-level flow in the extended.
Hawai'i local forecast philosophy and trends are solid.

The 22/00Z ECMWF/Canadian deterministic solutions appeared to take
the lead in the 'unraveling' of Olaf's circulation just after day
4 ---with the downstream solutions continuing to struggle with the
 moisture and energy transfer details invof 40N 130W by 28/12Z.

Of note---
It might look complex and with high uncertainty---but if the
forecast maintains a NAEFS/ECENS approach after day 4, the
forecast across the entire Pacific basin will not change much at
all. The relative simplicity revolves around a consensus longwave
solution invof the Gulf of Alaska (along 155W) at 29/12z with a
deep cyclone (remnants of Champi). This merely sets up a 'stable
forecast period' and a mid-latitude Pacific basin flow with an
amplitude and wavelength --- that will 'semi-stabilize' the
pattern across the dateline at/beyond day 7.

That in itself---is the 'big departure' from what has been
observed over the past 2-3 months in the Subtropical Pacific.

For the latest information concerning Hurricane 'Olaf'---please
refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC).

Vojtesak