Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 24 2015 - 00Z Sat Oct 31 2015

A post-Olaf low-level atmospheric environment appears to return to
a more 'normal' low-level wind pattern---with the Subtropical
Ridge building into the forecast area from the west and north. The
23/00Z deterministic ECMWF/GFS solutions were in decent
shorter-term agreement with weak high pressure building into the
region from the north and west early next week (between 27/00Z and
28/12z) which should introduce a 'fresh' tradewind-like northeast
flow---and prefer something that more closely resembles the ECMWF
solution 'Pacific-wide' by 29/12Z at the surface. The preference
here is based on the faster mid-period 'bias' of the GEFS/GFS.
This bias comes into play with its 'faster' and more-amplified
subtropical surface high solution at day 5. That does not fit the
downstream scenario envisioned across the northeast Pacific, Gulf
of Alaska and Mainland.  

Medium Range--
The 23/00Z GEFS, NAEFS and ECENS ensembles means maintain a
progressive weather pattern across the north Pacific---with the
featured long wave trough axis migrating east of the Dateline
on/after day 5 (28/12z). The set up will begin to create a more
active migratory shortwave progression along 40N latitude and by
the far extended portion of the medium range---29/12Z---a
mid-level trough migration spread south into the Subtropics (east
of 160W longitude).

For all pertinent information concerning Hurricane 'Olaf'---please
refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC).

Vojtesak