Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 27 2015 - 00Z Tue Nov 03 2015

The latest models and ensembles reasonably agree that the trailing
end of a showery frontal boundary emanating from a powerful low
deepening across the north Pacific well north of the islands will
push through the state today/tomorrow in the wake of rapidly
exiting Olaf. Deep layered anticyclonic flow behind this front
build across the state through midweek, with corresponding
strengthening trades.

Trades should begin to weaken again Thursday ahead of the next
front pushing southeastward across the central Pacific as an
amplified mid-upper level trough develops well to the northwest of
the islands. This front digs to the northwest of the state
underneath a complex deep low system that includes energy from the
extratropical remains of Champi. A favored guidance composite
would then indicate that gradual surface response associated with
increased proximity of the amplified/slow moving trough aloft to
the northwest would support potential for an increasingly
moist/wet flow pattern for the state to develop next weekend into
early next week.

Schichtel