Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2015

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 28 2015 - 00Z Wed Nov 04 2015

Latest guidance agrees fairly well with the overall forecast
through early next week.  Moderate northeasterly to easterly
trades early in the period should take on more of a southeasterly
component by late in the week.  This trend will be in response to
the combination of high pressure initially to the north of the
state tracking into the eastern Pacific along with upper
troughing/embedded closed low helping to develop a wavy frontal
boundary to the northwest of the islands.  During the weekend and
early next week expect a wave on that front to strengthen and lift
northward, with the trailing front pushing a little closer to the
northwestern islands.  Model/ensemble mean differences with the
position of this front by next Mon-Tue are fairly small relative
to typical forecast errors 6-7 days out in time, but are
significant in terms of how much accompanying moisture may reach
the northwestern islands.  An intermediate solution appears
reasonable at this time.  Away from this front, from now until
Thu-Fri showers should be more likely over favored terrain on the
Big Island where precipitable water values should be highest. 
Deep moisture should then spread northwestward into the weekend.

Rausch