Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
702 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2015

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 15 2015 - 00Z Sun Nov 22 2015

Today's models and ensemble means maintain ideas and differences
similar to recent days.  A fairly strong surface high progressing
from the central into eastern Pacific will support brisk trades
through the weekend.  Settling of this high over the eastern
Pacific, and to a greater extent a front approaching the islands
from the northwest in response to an upper trough, should then
weaken the trades somewhat and turn them more from the southeast. 
From now into early next week locally enhanced shower activity
should trend lighter as precipitable water values decline to the
1-1.25 inch range.

Guidance agrees that the aforementioned front and accompanying
band of moisture should remain to the northwest of the state
through the period as upper trough energy lingers to the west. 
However GFS/ECMWF runs continue to show an area of greater deep
moisture moving into/across the area from the southeast during the
latter half of the week with some surface troughing also possible.
 Those models still differ in timing of the moisture and highest
PWAT values with the GFS about a day faster and 0.25 inch higher
for max PWATs.  Also as seen yesterday, ECMWF-based guidance
extends the upper trough farther southeastward than most solutions
aside from the 00z UKMET.  So until better clustering develops a
compromise appears to be the best option.  Either way there is the
general theme of rainfall likely trending heavier from Wed or Thu
onward.

Rausch