Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 721 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2015 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 19 2015 - 00Z Thu Nov 26 2015 Models and ensembles forecast a positively-tilted mid-level trough remaining to the northwest and north of Hawai'i through about Tuesday next week before more substantial troughing near the Aleutians pushes the trough axis eastward. Deterministic models generally lie to the east of the ensemble mean frontal position over the weekend though the evolution may contain at least two areas of low pressure that should stay to the northwest of the islands. Model/ensemble compromise may be most prudent at this time since the details remain murky. This includes the 00Z-06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. Generally a wet period for the region with easterlies becoming southeasterlies and then southerlies in concert with elevated precipitable water values -- around 1.50-2.00 inches or about +1.5 to +3.0 sigma. QPF from the models/ensembles remains a mess with lots of spread over the region. Heavier rain should largely fall on the northwestern islands closer to the surface convergence zone but the Big Island may see this axis approach from the northeast which may enhance the heavy rainfall threat. Fracasso