Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2015

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 23 2015 - 00Z Mon Nov 30 2015

With a slowly moving cold front over the northwest islands today,
a wet patern is forecast to continue for several more days over
Hawai'i. Models and ensembles show the trough to pull east of 155W
early Wednesday though the surface convergence zone should linger
across the state for most of the week. Precipitable water values
are forecast to vary over the region, from about 1.00-2.00 inches
which is up to about a +3.0 standardized anomaly. This would fuel
some heavier to locally excessive rains, enhanced by terrain lift.
The 00Z GEFS ensembles show much higher PW values around Lihue
Thu-Fri compared to the ECMWF and its ensembles but otherwise the
two compare favorably. Ridging from the west is still forecast to
build eastward next weekend, which will resume the typical trades,
though more brisk than average, and a drier pattern.


Fracasso