Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
702 AM EST Wed Dec 09 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 10 2015 - 00Z Thu Dec 17 2015

Models and ensembles show anomalous ridging persisting through
about early Saturday between 140-150W just east of Hawai'i.
Thereafter, the 00Z GFS/ECMWF indicate an upper trough to close
off near 29N/160W. The recent GFS runs remain a bit farther south
with this feature compared to the ECMWF while the UKMET was much
farther north and the Canadian was weaker and farther west. Would
recommend a compromise GFS/ECMWF solution. This should keep the
feature progressive but still disrupt trades from generally
easterly to southeasterly over the Big Island but northwesterly
for much of the rest of the islands as the shear line associated
with the upper trough attempts to push through the region. PW
values are forecast to remain generally near to below climo values
but rise near the shear axis to as much as +1 sigma. Precipitation
should be modest at best, especially in favored terrain areas, as
the best forcing should remain north of the region.


Fracasso