Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 11 2015 - 00Z Fri Dec 18 2015

The 10/00Z ECENS/GEFS ensemble forecast and their deterministic
runs were in decent agreement through the short term. This
upcoming Sunday and Monday (days 3-4) --- the mid-level
disturbance migration (currently invof 35N 170E) is reasonably
modeled ---with the 500mb trough axis migrating east of 160W
(at/around 14/00z). This appears to be the only sensible weather
feature of note for Hawai'i this forecast period and the system
will likely generate a period of southwest flow and focus shower
activity along west and southwest facing slopes.

The deterministic 10/00Z GFS would be the wetter solution with
respect to this mid-level wave---and would think some shower
enhancement is possible with a 'steeper' mid-level lapse rate
environment.

For day 5-7, high pressure rebuilds across the entire forecast
area from west to east --- with mid-level winds shifting to the
west and northwest.

Vojtesak