Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 AM EST Sat Dec 12 2015

Valid 00Z Sun Dec 13 2015 - 00Z Sun Dec 20 2015

Shorter-term sensible weather changes include a very light and
variable wind regime --- with a mid-level trough and weak surface
wave emerging invof 30N 160W. Aloft --- light south to southwest
winds will shift to west and northwesterly --- with a more
variable low-level cloud pattern and precipitation distribution
through Monday.

The deterministic GFS/ECMWF continue to show some variation with
the depth and  migration of the surface wave which can be tied to
their respective mid-level solutions. The ECMWF is slightly more
amplified with the mid-level flow across the Subtropics than the
GFS --- in the short term --- and maintains a more consolidated
500mb circulation beyond Monday along 25N latitude. The GFS --- is
more amplified late in the period along 25N (west of 175W
longitude). Suggest using a blend of the 12/00Z GEFS and ECENS
means beyond day 2 to cover the spread. 

Either way, deep-layered high pressure is expected to rebuild into
the region --- with moderate/brisk trade wind pattern returning
mid-week (day4-5).

Vojtesak