Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 653 AM EST Tue Dec 22 2015 Valid 00Z Wed Dec 23 2015 - 00Z Wed Dec 30 2015 Through this weekend into early next week guidance shows a moderately wet trade regime. Strong high pressure northeast of the state gradually weakens and moves away. Another high moves from northwest of the islands Fri to north of the islands over the weekend to northeast of the islands early next week. Precipitable water values will be variable in a range centered around 1.25-1.50 inches, which is above normal. Available moisture will be aided by a compact upper circulation tracking northeastward from south of the islands the rest of this week. Trade showers will likely focus over windward terrain. The ECMWF and GFS both show more pronounced low-mid level ridging next week and drying aloft as the 500 mb cyclonic shear axis departs. This would lead to a reduction in shower coverage and rainfall amounts if correct, and is supported by the 00z GEFS mean and ECMWF ensemble mean. Petersen