Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 721 AM EST Wed Dec 30 2015 Valid 00Z Thu Dec 31 2015 - 00Z Thu Jan 07 2016 The Hawai`ian island chain continues to be well south of the active mid-latitude storm track. This particular flow regime will amplify in time but be of no major consequence to the state. At the surface, the current analysis indicates a cold front shearing over the vicinity of Kauai with residual northeasterly flow in its wake. The low-level winds will gradually veer to more easterly as a weak surface ridge builds to the north. Throughout the remainder of the period, passages of additional anticyclones will aid in enhancing local wind fields. The guidance is somewhat at odds with the strength of one such system for early next week. In particular, the 00Z CMC is more robust leading to 20 to 30 knot northeasterly flow by 05/0000Z. This appears to be a strong outlier based on evaluation of ensemble guidance. In terms of precipitation, models show a weak signal of showers breaking out along a pair of shearing baroclinic zones. This would carry a low end threat for rain on Saturday and Tuesday. However, overall moisture availability is not great with precipitable waters values generally in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range. Otherwise, besides any frontal showers that develop, areas of terrain may see diurnally forced precipitation. Rubin-Oster