Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 732 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2016 Valid 00Z Thu Jan 14 2016 - 00Z Thu Jan 21 2016 The 13/00Z model cycle and their ensembles agree on the central Pacific flow pattern --- and support the current Hawai'i forecast through day 6. A blend of the GEFS/ECENS means for day 7 seemed reasonable---and would support something closer to the deterministic 13/00Z GFS at that time frame. Some struggles over the north Pacific between days 3-7---with another Arctic intrusion spreading into the Bering Sea and northwest Gulf of Alaska--- the shortwave details have less impact across the Subtropics until days 6-7---when the 13/00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF begin to generate a lead shortwave invof 30N 170W. At/around 18/12z-day 5, this lead shortwave begins to dig east-southward and migrates close to Kauai --- for day 6. The ECMWF becomes a weaker, more progressive solution versus the slower, more organized frontal passage on or after day 7---and the outcome of the differences ---concerns the low-level wind direction. The ECMWF ---more of/and a lighter southwest wind---the GFS a well-defined frontal passage and west to northwest flow. Surprisingly, at/after day7 --- the northern hemispheric mid-latitude wave pattern from Japan to Quebec looks rather stable--- with a fast westerly flow and 40N. Vojtesak