Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2016

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 22 2016 - 00Z Fri Jan 29 2016

Guidance now shows better than average agreement with the forecast
pattern into late next week.  As has been the case in recent
weeks, progressive mid-latitude Pacific flow will continue to
support a series of fronts that will approach and in some cases
reach the islands.  The first front is initially over/near the
state and likely to dissipate shortly.  Another front should
approach and cross the area around Sun-Mon.  The final front of
interest is forecast to approach the northwestern islands next Tue
but may not make any further southeastward progress due to a
system immediately upstream.

Weak high pressure passing just north of the state will provide
light to moderate trades late this week.  Then winds will likely
become more variable as high pressure travels farther eastward and
the Sun-Mon front passes through.  After frontal passage a surface
ridge will tend to lie over or near the islands, leading to winds
on the lighter side of the spectrum.  Toward next Thu winds should
have varying degrees of a southerly component ahead of the next
approaching front.  Precipitable water values should be relatively
modest through the period so expect rainfall to be light in most
cases.  The Sun-Mon front could offer a little enhancement of
moisture/rainfall but signals from the guidance are not too
impressive.  Focus of any shower activity will vary depending on
the relative strength of trade flow or land/sea breezes.

Rausch