Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 710 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2016 Valid 00Z Sun Jan 24 2016 - 00Z Sun Jan 31 2016 Today's runs of models and ensemble means provide little significant change in the forecast. Expect drier than average conditions with precipitable water values tending to hover around one inch except for a narrow band reaching 1.25 inches or so with a front reaching the islands late Sun-Mon. This front will provide a little enhancement for shower activity. Otherwise focus for what rainfall does occur will vary based on strength/direction of prevailing winds, with periods of lighter winds allowing for some land and sea breezes. Winds should gradually trend lighter over the course of the weekend as a weak surface ridge settles over the area. Arrival of the late Sun-Mon front will bring a brief period of stronger winds from the north/northeast. Then from Tue through at least Wed the islands will be in the extreme southwest periphery of eastern Pacific high pressure while a wavy front will set up to the northwest. This pattern should allow for southeasterly winds near the Big Island and southerly to southwesterly winds over the central/northwestern islands. By Thu-Sat spread develops regarding exact position of the surface front. Currently there is no well defined majority cluster, favoring a compromise between latest GFS runs and slightly faster 00z ECMWF. There should be little if any southeastward progress of the front after Thu as a front extending from a strong Aleutians system begins to come into the picture off to the northwest next weekend. Winds may trend to the light side by this late week/weekend time frame. Rausch