Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 16 2016 - 00Z Tue Feb 23 2016

High pressure will remain to the northwest of the islands near
35N/175W through about Wednesday, helping to push a front through
the region but with limited support. Windward showers will
generally be light with modest northeast breezes veering to
easterly later this week. For the weekend into next Monday,
ensembles show good agreement on strong upper ridging retrograding
westward past the Dateline which will allow troughing to dig right
toward Hawai'i. At this trajectory, it would keep the bulk of the
precipitation to the north and east of the region, per the
ensembles. The 00Z GFS represents the quicker side of the ensemble
spread and the Canadian represents the slowest side, while the 00Z
ECMWF lies squarely in the middle of the multi-center ensemble
cluster.


Fracasso