Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2016

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 19 2016 - 00Z Fri Feb 26 2016

Trades will relax a bit after today as a weakening surface high
slides eastward to the north of Hawai'i. Generally light windward
showers are expected thanks to near/below climo PW values, but
with some higher local amounts. Cold front is expected to push
through the state later this weekend as upper trough swings north
of the region. GFS ensembles lag a bit behind the ECMWF ensembles
as it pulls northeastward Sunday into Monday. Precip should be on
the lighter side with the frontal passage as deeper moisture
remains to the east, but with breezy conditions. Winds will shift
to the northwest behind the front with a cooler and drier airmass
behind it. Thereafter, a deep upper trough is forecast to slide
eastward just south of the Aleutians which may drag another cold
front into or through the area. Ensembles show good agreement and
form a good compromise between the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z/06Z GFS runs.


Fracasso