Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 20 2016 - 00Z Sat Feb 27 2016

A blend of the 19/00Z GEFS/ECENS means and their deterministic
runs were very reasonable solutions through Monday (day 3).
Deepening surface cyclone invof 36N 150W will track northeastward
--- but will spread a well-defined mid-latitude cold front
southward. This front migrates across the western portion of the
state early Monday and affect the Big Island by Monday evening.

The deterministic 19/00Z ECMWF maintains a slightly weaker frontal
structure versus the 19/00z GFS --- and a blend of the two
solutions should allow the front to slowly decay just south of the
Big Island --- losing its mid-level support --- but still
producing some clouds and showers.

This frontal passage should cause a disruption of the seasonal
trades through much of next week.

The mid-latitude north central Pacific Ocean (between 150W-160W)
remains an active region of cyclogenesis during the latter half of
this particular forecast period. And as far as the Subtropical
Pacific is concerned ---the deterministic 19/00Z GFS/ECMWF
appeared to be rather decent pieces of forecast guidance --- even
heading into the 26/12Z time frame.

Vojtesak