Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 721 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2016 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 22 2016 - 00Z Mon Feb 29 2016 Very little change in the forecast---with current guidance in full support of the on-going Hawai'i forecast scenario. The 21/00Z GEFS/ECENS means and their deterministic runs maintain a solid forecast approach for the entire Pacific Ocean basin. The mid-latitude north Pacific remains active and sequencing of the strong shortwave migrations has not changed. No real preferences here---both model packages seem to handle the details rather well. Still looking for a surface cyclone to rapidly-deepen in strength near 35N 158W in the next 12 hours --- then track northeastward --- and spread a well-defined mid-latitude cold front southward into the western portion of the state early Monday. The front quickly losing upper-level support and weakening as it migrates through central and eastern Hawai'i --- Monday afternoon/night. A drier airmass should build in temporarily behind this frontal passage on Tuesday and for Wednesday. Going forward into the Thursday time frame (around 25/12Z) --- the deterministic 20/00Z ECMWF/GFS --- appear to have a better feel for the character of the next mid-level trough passing north of the Hawai'ian Islands. If anything--- they seem to indicate a return of the Subtropical High --- building west to east behind the front. Aloft---the 21/00Z ECENS/GEFS means support a temporary rise in heights and perhaps --- a return of the seasonal Trades for the end of next week. So a blend of these means, inter-twined with some deterministic guidance is not a bad way to approach the far extended forecast in the central Pacific. Vojtesak