Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 25 2016 - 00Z Thu Mar 03 2016

Guidance reasonably agrees that dynamic mid-upper level trough
energy will pass to the north of the state today into Thursday.
Satellite imagery matches well with latest models and ensembles
that identifies an associated front northwest of the state
approaching 25N 160W that is slated to work into the islands
Thursday before stalling as mid-upper support ejects away from the
state. Guidance and blended precipitable water loops agree that
pooled moisture and showers with this feature will also be
enhanced with return flow of deeper moisture associated with a
lead front just to the southeast of the Big Island that spreads
and lingers back across the state to combine to fuel a wet period
with some heavier local downpours Thursday into early next week.
The possible approach of another well defined front from the
northwest Monday/Tuesday with yet another amplified mid-upper
level trough passage to the north of the state may again act to
enhance island moisture and rainfall.  This front seems to have
stronger support for passage across the islands.  Guidance agrees
well on this overall scenario.

Schichtel/Kong