Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
707 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 29 2016 - 00Z Mon Mar 07 2016

New guidance shows little change in the general theme of multiple
fronts approaching and sometimes reaching the state, with some
modest differences in details and run to run adjustments.  This
progression will lead to variable winds that should average in the
lighter half of the spectrum except for around Tue-Wed.

The first front of interest should approach on Mon, followed by a
stronger Tue front anchored by a deep mid-latitude system. 
Passage of this front will likely bring a brief period of stronger
northerly winds Tue into Wed.  Winds should then slacken as high
pressure weakens/elongates just north of the islands.  Another
front is forecast to approach by Sat and than stall out, with
00z/06z GFS runs showing a farther southward extent than the past
two ECMWF runs.  During next weekend the ECMWF shows slightly
stronger ridging aloft than most other guidance so would recommend
an intermediate solution at this time.

Continue to expect relatively light rainfall with isolated
enhancement along each front.  Precipitable water values should
remain on the low side, though during the latter half of the week
guidance is indicating that 1-1.25" PWATs may linger near the Big
Island longer than previously forecast.

Rausch