Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
721 AM EST Wed Mar 02 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 03 2016 - 00Z Thu Mar 10 2016

Models and ensembles remain in very good agreement on the synoptic
evolution over the Pacific during the next seven days. For the
next few days, the weakening tail-end of a frontal boundary will
linger over the southeast islands, but mostly the Big Island,
which will act to enhance some shower activity in windward areas.
Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control Thu/Fri before
another weak front nears the region this weekend, though its PW
axis should remain north of the state.

At the same time, the upper low near the Aleutians is expected to
break down and send a deep trough southward and eastward late
Sunday into Monday near the Dateline. This will bring a strong
cold front through the region around the middle of next week. The
GFS/GEFS members remain quicker than the ECMWF/CMC and their
ensembles with the speed of the trough/front. Typically the
ECMWF/CMC ensembles perform better than the GFS/GEFS in amplified
flow and would put more weight in their slower solutions over the
GFS/GEFS.


Fracasso