Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 AM EST Sat Mar 05 2016

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 06 2016 - 00Z Sun Mar 13 2016

A stationary front will linger to the north of Hawai'i into Sunday
as a deep trough digs down from the north central Pacific. This
trough has been well forecast for several days and a blend of the
non-CMC models offers a reasonable forecast. This will turn the
trades to southerly Sunday into Monday before the front pushes
through from NW to SE Tuesday into early Wednesday. Though PW
values will rise ahead of the front, the progressive nature of the
boundary should limit the heavy rain threat to only about a 24-hr
period as it passes by. For Thursday through Saturday, the models
diverge markedly in the northwest and north Pacific with some more
modest disparities near the 50th state. Cold front should push
south of the area as a surface high moves eastward along 30N,
maintaining windy conditions for the end of the week. The moisture
axis will initially push south of the region before possibly
lifting back north of 20N Fri/Sat. The ensembles show a large
spread in PW values for the Big Island between 0.75" and 1.75"
though the GFS/ECMWF lie on the higher side. For now, may lean
toward favoring the higher half of the ensemble spread which will
keep a showery forecast into the weekend.


Fracasso