Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 14 2016 - 00Z Mon Mar 21 2016

Short term showers should remain primarily limited to favored
windward terrain, but expect trades to gradually weaken as
supporting high pressure shifts from the north to northeast of the
state. Models and ensembles still reasonably agree that the
approach of an amplified mid-upper level trough from the northwest
early week should allow moisture to gradually rebound into the
state. Main system passage aloft along/north of the state
Tuesday/Wednesday will also force a well defined surface cold
front with organized showers through the islands. This will be
followed by return of moderate post-frontal trades extending into
next weekend as supporting high pressure settles northwest of the
state. Forecast spread and uncertainty is below normal in this
weather pattern over the next week, so a near composite guidance
solution still seems reasonable.

Schichtel