Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 23 2016 - 00Z Wed Mar 30 2016

The 22/00Z deterministic ECMWF/GFS solutions --- tend to follow
their ensemble guidance but --- provide slightly different
outcomes and options for the eastern half of the Pacific and North
America through this 7-day forecast package.

Through day 3---
A slow-moving surface trough --- to the west-northwest of Kauai
(between 160W and 170W) will be a sensible weather feature ---
spreading slowly eastward and southward --- and a focus for
showers and thunderstorms.

After day 3---
The GFS approach has a slightly different solution for the surface
trough alignment heading into this weekend versus the ECMWF (day
4). And with respect to precipitation ---particularly across the
eastern third of the state --- the GFS/ECMWF guidance both suggest
mid-level troughing and instability lingers over Hawai'i.

Based on the mid-latitude Pacific and downstream pattern --- would
suggest leaning a little more towards a 22/00Z deterministic
ECMWF/GFS and ECENS means blend through day 3 --- then trend
towards a blend of the ECENS/GEFS means (70%/30%) --- after day 5.

This philosophy might slow down the general faster bias displayed
by the GEFS at mid latitudes.--- which appears to be the case when
the amplitude of the wave pattern is increasing through time
(along 145W longitude).

Vojtesak