Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 03 2016 - 00Z Sun Apr 10 2016

Latest model and ensemble guidance shows better than average
agreement for most of the forecast period.  Expect moderate trades
through the weekend into the start of next week as high pressure
north of the state gradually strengthens while tracking
northeastward.  During Mon-Tue trades will turn southeasterly in
advance of a cold front that should pass through the islands Tue
into Wed.  Behind this front there will be a day or two of strong
northerly-northeasterly winds, followed by moderate easterly
trades as the high weakens and lifts northeastward.  Another front
may approach the area by next Sat.  Timing spread for this latter
front is in the typical range for a day 7 forecast.  For the front
and trailing high the 00z-06z GFS and 00z ECMWF mean are in the
middle between the faster 00z ECMWF and slower 00z GEFS mean.

There will likely be windward focused shower activity most days. 
Some moderate enhancement of rainfall is possible with the Tue-Wed
front and then for a day or so rainfall may reach locations other
than windward areas when winds are strongest.  After midweek a
band of moisture initially associated with this front may linger
over the southeastern islands for a while and allow for somewhat
more rain over/near the Big Island relative to the northwestern
islands.

Rausch