Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 AM EDT Sun Apr 10 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 11 2016 - 00Z Mon Apr 18 2016

Good agreement among the models/ensembles still exists for the
next week or so. Upper ridging is forecast to build to the NW then
N then NE of Hawai'i Mon-Thu which support 500mb height anomalies
about +2 standard deviations from normal. Surface high will slide
eastward just north of 30N and increase the pressure gradient,
increasing trades midweek before lessening by next weekend. Bouts
of moisture will pass through the region though the highest 850mb
moisture flux anomalies may lie just southwest of the islands.
Scattered light to isolated modest amounts of precipitation are
expected, especially in favored windward locations. By next
Sunday, models indicate lowering heights and a possible front or
shear line to approach the NW islands. The GEFS ensembles were
generally more bullish with this boundary than the ECMWF
ensembles. The ECMWF ensemble mean has shown impressive
verification in the past couple of weeks in the rather amplified
pattern across the Pacific into North America, so will weigh that
solution more by later in the period.


Fracasso