Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 13 2016 - 00Z Wed Apr 20 2016

The 12/00Z forecast cycle --- has a very good handle on the
magnitude of this particular 7-day western hemispheric long wave
pattern. Through day 4 --- current Hawai'i forecasts appeared to
be in-line with what the guidance offered --- ie a
moderately-active tradewind flow and terrain-induced shower
pattern along windward slopes.      

The interesting differences between the deterministic GFS/ECMWF
and Canadian focus  upon the 17/12Z to 18/12Z time frame invof
145W. And come down to the degree of phased energy (GFS) versus a
splitting/shearing trough axis (ECMWF/Canadian) that ultimately
takes place. Since most of the differences that shake out after
18/12Z have implications downstream --- recommend a 12/00Z
ECENS/NAEFS blend to maintain the current forecast and imply --- a
west-to-east and progressive frontal passage (between 17/00Z and
18/00Z) that contains limited cold air support aloft for
widespread convection.

Vojtesak