Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2016

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 15 2016 - 00Z Fri Apr 22 2016

Models and ensembles reasonably agree in the overall flow pattern
evolution across Hawaii and vicinity for much of the next week.
Blended precipitable water loops show pooled moisture and some
enhanced local rainfall potential over the state in a moderate to
brisk mean trade pattern under vicinity of a general weakness
aloft. A prefered guidance composite indicates that amplifying
flow across the Pacific mid-latitudes will allow mid-upper level
trough passage to the north then northeast of the state over the
weekend that will force an associated front across the state to
further focus rainfall. Lingering moisture into next week,
especially over the southern islands, should then fuel additional
showers in a returning moderate to brisk mean trade pattern
periodically enhanced as post-frontal high pressure cells bridge
to the north of the islands.

Schichtel