Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 16 2016 - 00Z Sat Apr 23 2016

The latest models and ensembles still reasonably agree in the
overall flow pattern evolution across Hawaii and vicinity for much
of the next week. Blended precipitable water loops continue to
show pooled moisture and some enhanced local rainfall potential
over the state now in a modest trade pattern under vicinity of a
general weakness aloft. A prefered guidance composite indicates
that amplifying flow across the Pacific mid-latitudes will allow
mid-upper level trough passages to the north then northeast of the
state over the weekend that will force associated frontal surges
gradually across the state to further focus rainfall. Lingering
moisture, deepest over the southern islands, should fuel showers
this weekend then next week in a returning moderate to brisk mean
trade pattern periodically enhanced as post-frontal high pressure
cells bridge to the north of the islands.

Schichtel