Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 AM EDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Valid 00Z Sun May 01 2016 - 00Z Sun May 08 2016

The 30/00Z forecast cycle did not throw any surprises at the
Subtropics--- but continues to produce fundamental differences at
high latitude and the Gulf of Alaska beyond day 6.

The Hawai'i forecasts looked 'on track' and a brief relaxation of
the trades (persistence) continues to be projected in the Thu-Fri
time frame --- as a temporary weakness in the Subtropical Ridge
emerges invof 160W.

The fundamental differences between the deterministic GFS, ECMWF
and Canadian affect the Alaska forecast realm --- and downstream
across the North American continent. But all areas and
deterministic differences seemingly can be resolved using a blend
of the ensemble means beyond day 6 (7/00Z). And for the
Subtropical Pacific --- that philosophy 'holds true'. Recommend a
blend of the 30/00Z ECENS and NAEFS at day 6-7 to maintain an
'ensemble mean-placed long wave trough' invof 150W longitude
(across the eastern Pacific) until a 'new' north Pacific storm
track can take shape along 50N latitude.

Vojtesak