Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 AM EDT Mon May 02 2016

Valid 00Z Tue May 03 2016 - 00Z Tue May 10 2016

The 2/00Z forecast cycle essentially mirrors the current Hawai'i
forecast through day 7. A break (weakness) in the Subtropical
Ridge developing later Thursday continues to be the advertised
feature of the pattern --- resulting in a slackening of the
'Northeast Trades' and an increase in land/sea breeze convergence.

Of note --- the 2/00Z deterministic ECMWF continues to depict a
vigorous cutoff 500mb low solution near 35N 150W for Friday and
Saturday --- and it does initiate some significant 'pattern'
differences downstream for the northeast Pacific and Gulf of
Alaska. But in essence, this peculiar feature does not seem to
produce much sensible weather change for Hawai'i.

Beyond the day 5 time frame --- rather than 'chase' a particular
deterministic solution along 150W-160W longitude, would suggest
using a 2/00Z ECENS/NAEFS blend to hold the pattern in place ---
and maintain 'separation' from the mid-latitude flow pattern and
storm track (along 50N latitude).

Vojtesak