Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 AM EDT Wed May 04 2016

Valid 00Z Thu May 05 2016 - 00Z Thu May 12 2016

Moderate trades are supporting windward terrain focused showers
today fueled by banded island moisture. Trades should be disrupted
Thursday as a front approaches the state from the Northwest, so
expect a more scattered heavy downpour pattern will develop.
Models and ensembles reasonably agree that compact and amplified
mid-upper level trough passage just to the north of the state
Friday will force the moisture pooling and shower enhancing front
into the state Friday/Saturday. Activity in this wet pattern with
the weakening but still moisture pooling front should persist
mainly for the southern to central islands into early-mid next
week and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means show lingering troughing
aloft closer to but not as amplified as the 00 UTC ECMWF.

Schichtel