Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Sat May 07 2016

Valid 00Z Sun May 08 2016 - 00Z Sun May 15 2016

Aside from smaller scale/localized differences, guidance agrees
fairly well into about the middle of the week.  A front extending
from a system well northeast of the state, and currently crossing
the central islands, will stall as it reaches the vicinity of the
Big Island and gradually weaken with time.  The band of greater
deep moisture associated with this front may support areas of
locally heavier rainfall over the southeastern half of the state. 
Expect winds to be northeasterly over the central/northwestern
islands and more from the east near the Big Islands.

Forecast specifics become increasingly uncertain by late week into
the weekend.  Individual models and ensemble members diverge
considerably with 00z GEFS members tending to show lower heights
aloft in some degree of support for recent GFS runs, while ECMWF
members tend to show higher heights but in less pronounced fashion
than the 00z ECMWF.  Note that the 00z ECMWF actually has one of
the stronger ridges passing to the north of the state relative to
full ensemble spread.  The 00z CMC/CMC mean offer some mixture of
GFS/ECMWF-based ideas aloft but side with the general ECMWF
scenario of maintaining light to moderate trade flow.  Thus for
now would prefer maintaining the trades Thu-Sat versus the
interruption depicted in GFS runs.

Rausch