Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Sun May 08 2016

Valid 00Z Mon May 09 2016 - 00Z Mon May 16 2016

Latest guidance expects a band of moisture associated with a
dissipating front to remain over the central islands into Tue and
then push southeastward to the Big Island Wed-Thu as heights aloft
gradually decrease.  Central and northwestern islands should see
steady northeasterly winds of at least moderate strength with
generally windward-favored showers potentially enhanced at times
within the band of higher precipitable water values.  Winds over
the Big Island may have more of an easterly component.

In the late week/weekend time frame models and ensemble members
continue to diverge with some important details at the surface and
aloft.  The 00z GFS/GEFS mean/CMC mean show the lowest heights
aloft over/north of the state during that period.  The 00z ECMWF
has relatively high heights with its mean showing a more modest
version of a similar evolution, though the ECMWF does still fall
within the ensemble spread.  The 06z GFS has details aloft that
are somewhat out of phase with other guidance but it has made a
notable trend toward higher heights.  Based on the full array of
guidance the most likely solution at the surface would be merely
some weakening of the trades around Fri, not the interruption
forecast by the 00z GFS.  Then there should be a gradual
strengthening in response to high pressure building to the
northeast of the state Sat-Sun.

Rausch