Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 AM EDT Wed May 11 2016

Valid 00Z Thu May 12 2016 - 00Z Thu May 19 2016

A quite wet weather pattern is in place for the Hawaiian islands
as a slow to weaken draped front has settled near Maui and the Big
Island. It's deepening moisture axis will remain mostly over the
southeastern islands over the next few days. Pooled precipitable
water values will potentially range upwards to 1.5-1.75+" at times
this week and blended precipitable water loops show an atmospheric
river plume with deepest moisture now poised just southwest of the
state. This offers fuel for a threat of heavy to excessive local
downpours and potential should expand slowly northwestward across
the rest of the state this weekend before diminishing. The
pressure gradient is forecast to relax and trades should weaken
Friday. However, A favored model and ensemble composite then show
heights building over the weekend into early next week, so trades
should pick up again as surface high pressure strengthens to the
northeast of the state.

Schichtel