Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 826 AM EDT Thu May 12 2016 Valid 00Z Fri May 13 2016 - 00Z Fri May 20 2016 The lingering stationary front near/through the Big Island will slowly fade but its moisture axis will lift northward through the rest of the island chain Friday-Sunday. Isolated Upper ridging will build northward in tandem, helping to decrease trades as well as the shower activity. Ensembles show a deepening trough/upper low along 180 next week along with another moving through the Gulf of Alaska, with an upper high near 35N/150W by next Wednesday. This leaves a relative weakness over and to the east of Hawai'i by early next week. The ECMWF ensembles were stronger and about 5-6 degrees longitude west with this upper high as well as the Dateline upper low compared to the GEFS ensembles. The ECMWF and Canadian align with the ECENS mean while the recent GFS runs align with the GEFS mean. Prefer to put more weight in the ECMWF/ECENS mean solution given the ensemble stability in recent runs, and the tendency for the GEFS to be too progressive at that lead time. Fracasso