Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 815 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016 Valid 00Z Mon May 23 2016 - 00Z Mon May 30 2016 Models and ensembles still generally agree upon the overall weather flow pattern effecting the Hawaiian Islands for much of the upcoming week and a composite solution seems reasonable. High pressure settling to the northeast of the state should support moderate to locally breezy trades into early week before easing a bit. Periods of banded moisture over the islands under a lingering mean weakness aloft should combine with trades to produce some windward terrain enhanced showers, with some activity working leeward on the smaller islands. Additional troughing aloft from the northwest midweek underneath a deep closed low passing to the north of the state could support a few more showers, followed by some uptick of later week trade flow as supporting high pressure becomes re-established northeast of the islands in the wake of low passage. Forecast spread and uncertainty does increase at longer time frames heading through next weekend with the 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and trends from the UKMET develop a stronger low and trailing front to the north and northwest of the state than the 06 UTC GFS, so the features outlook seems sensitive to guidance initializations. A building upstream mid-upper level ridge common to most guidance as part a possible omega-block over the west-central Pacific by then could portend a solution on the more amplified side of the full envelope of model solutions and this has better ensemble support. This flow evolution would act to disrupt island trades. Schichtel