Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Wed Jun 08 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 09 2016 - 00Z Thu Jun 16 2016

With Northern Hemisphere flow being characterized by slowly
progressing medium wavelength systems that are typically well
modeled, the solution envelope continues to exhibit low spread or
strong agreement, supporting the ideas already expressed in recent
discussions from WPC and WFO HFO. Expect moderate or breezy trade
winds throughout the 7-day period. Initially mid level
temperatures are quite warm, with drier air / PW values around 1.3
inches / owing to a subsidence inversion. This will limit the
effectiveness and coverage of showers in the early periods, but
mid level temperatures are forecast to relax or cool from east to
west beginning late Thursday. Coverage and intensity of rain
showers will then be further enhanced by an inverted trough axis
passing beneath the persistent Central Pacific ridge center, and
passing directly over the Aloha state from east to west Sunday to
Tuesday. Models are in good agreement as to the timing and
character of this trough which will bring an increase in deep
layer ascent and PW values rising above 1.5 inches.

Burke